Abstract

An assessment of the vulnerability of coastal strategic facilities to artificially generated tsunami waves by the Russian nuclear torpedo «Poseidon» has been carried out. The results of the conducted research are relevant for the U.S. Navy’s Naval Base San Diego and Naval Base Kitsap. The study is based on three different methodological approaches: general analysis of the actual consequences of underwater explosions (nuclear weapons tests and the underwater volcanic eruption of January 15, 2022); analysis of the consequences of the tsunamigenic earthquake that occurred in the Pacific Ocean on July 29, 2025 (magnitude M=8.8), for the purpose of comparing with the probable consequences of using the «Poseidon» nuclear torpedo; and the concept of tsunamigenic earthquake (necessary and sufficient conditions for tsunami occurrence after an earthquake, taking into account understanding of the physical nature of this phenomenon).

It has been proven that none of the underwater nuclear weapons tests conducted (with underwater explosion yields up to 30 kt) resulted in tsunami wave generation; that the underwater explosion in the Pacific Ocean on January 15, 2022, resulting from the underwater eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano (yield of 10-60 Mt) did not cause the formation of a destructive tsunami wave with catastrophic consequences. On the Tonga archipelago (epicentral distance of 65 km), the tsunami height reached only 60 cm, and the damage was estimated at $100 million (three fatalities). The assessment of coastal strategic facilities’ vulnerability to artificially generated tsunami waves by the Russian nuclear torpedo «Poseidon» was performed using experimental data from measurements of tsunamigenic characteristics of the earthquake that occurred on July 29, 2025, using the example of Avacha Bay (Pacific Ocean), where up to 50% of Russia’s strategic nuclear submarines are permanently based.

It has been proven that the tactical and technical characteristics of the «Poseidon» nuclear torpedo are fundamentally incapable of ensuring tsunami wave formation. It is established that in enclosed bays and on coasts with steep coastal slopes, tsunami waves do not represent any threat. Furthermore, there are natural limitations on the maximum possible height of surface waves, determined by the density difference between air and water (the height of ocean waves, according to the theoretical foundations of ocean physics, cannot exceed 30-35 m).

Keywords: underwater nuclear explosion; «Poseidon» nuclear torpedo; tsunami; earthquake; port infrastructure of the Russian Pacific Fleet Naval Base; nuclear submarines

FULL TEXT (in Ukrainian)

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The article was submitted 10.10.2025
© Kapochkin, B.B., Kucherenko, N.V., Kuzmenko, V.V., Sokolovskyi, R.V., 2025
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)